Busting the ‘Anderson’s as good as Steyn’ myth

by The Editor

FEATURE: In the run-up to the England-South Africa series and, indeed, during the first test, many commentators have made the claim that Dale Steyn and James Anderson are equals – on the basis of their records over the past three years. Looking at their total averages over that period, however, is misleading. If you break those statistics down by season, you arrive at a different conclusion.

Busting the ‘Anderson’s as good as Steyn’ myth

By: Gareth van Onselen


27 July 2012

A common refrain in the run up to and opening exchanges of the England/South Africa series has been the suggestion that, among other things, it would be a show down between the ‘two best fast bowlers in the world’; certainly between ‘the two best swing bowlers in the world’: Dale Steyn and James Anderson.

It is an analysis repeatedly made by television and print commentators (South African and English alike) and the argument goes like this:

Yes, over the course of their careers, Steyn’s record is far superior to Anderson’s. Steyn averages around 23 per wicket, Anderson 30. But, over the past three or so years, their records are much more similar: since 2009 Steyn averages 22, Anderson 23. And so, one should look past their overall records. The fact is, over the past few years, these two are neck and neck.

Investec Cricket Zone (Investec is sponsoring the series and have a website dedicated to cricket) has an archetype of this argument, which you can find here, and which revolves around the following table:

On the basis of that table, they argue: “These two bowlers are right at the top of their game at the moment.”

(There is every reason to believe the comparrison was generated by the British press, a good bit of England PR ahead of the series – it is repeated in the Daily Mail, Independent and Mirror among other British papers.)

It is true, if you look at each player’s overall record over the past few years, the gap between their averages does indeed close but, look a little closer and it becomes clear that using this particular analysis brings you indisputably to the wrong conclusion.

To understand why, one must break down their averages into smaller component parts. Cricinfo allows one to break down a bowler’s performance by season. Let’s do that for Steyn and Anderson over the same period and see what it tells us (these stats include the first test match of the series, so bear that in mind when looking at 2012).

Steyn (full breakdown here):

• season 2009/10: 26 wickets @ 22.3
• season 2010: 15 wickets @ 18.3
• season 2010/11: 27 wickets @ 23.9
• season 2011/12: 34 wickets @ 22.9
• season 2012: 7 wickets @ 22.1

Anderson (full breakdown here):

• season 2009/10: 16 wickets @ 34.2
• season 2010: 32 wickets @ 16.8
• season 2010/11: 24 wickets @ 26.1
• season 2011: 28 wickets @ 26.5
• season 2011/12: 18 wickets @ 24.7
• season 2012: 10 wickets @ 35.8

It becomes immediately apparent that Anderson’s lower average over this period is almost entirely due to his performance during the 2010 season, when he averaged an excellent 16.8. Outside of that, however, the best he has managed is an average of 24.7 – during the 2011/12 season. Twice he averages well into the 30s. Steyn, by way of comparison, is far more consistent. While his best season is 2010 (average 18.3) in other seasons he hardly ever breaks an average of 22, the worst being 2010/11, when he averaged 23.9.

So, one can total those periods up and, sure enough, largely on the basis of his performance during the 2010 season, Anderson’s overall average does indeed drop – as the Investec table, for example, suggests – but outside of that, while it is better than his career average of 30, it is significantly higher than Steyn’s. Steyn sits, absolutely consistent, on or around 22, every season.

There is even an argument to be made that Anderson’s form is actually in decline. If one divideds his statistics up by calender year, as opposed to season, you get the following for the last three years:

• 2010: 57 wickets @ 22.9
• 2011: 35 wickets @ 24.9
• 2012: 28 wickets @ 28.7

His average has been systematically increasing, from 2010 onwards.

Not to take anything away from Anderson – who is good, make no mistake; and his last three seasons have been amongst his career best – but I’m afraid it is just wrong to say he is on the same level as Steyn. Or to argue he has been on the same level as Steyn over the last three years. He is not and has not been. Steyn is and has been better.

Of course one could skip all of that and just look at each’s performance in the first test but then hindsight is 20/20 vision.

To follow Inside Cricket by e-mail simply go to the bottom of the page and fill in your address. When you confirm it, you will receive an e-mail the moment any new post is loaded to the site.